Six SNAP households the top three models deny
20 of the 100 households qualify for SNAP in the PolicyEngine reference. The top three models on the board, GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Fable 5.1, and Kimi K3, each predict $0 for the same 6: scenario_027, scenario_030, scenario_045, scenario_073, scenario_108, scenario_112. The reference for each is $2881 for the year, the minimum allotment (8% of the one-person maximum, $23.84 a month, for households of one or two).
Five of the six qualify through broad-based categorical eligibility: Connecticut, Michigan, Texas, and Wisconsin confer SNAP eligibility on households receiving a TANF-funded non-cash benefit, with gross-income limits of 200% of poverty (CT, MI, WI) and 165% (TX) and the net-income and asset tests waived. The sixth, scenario_112 in Texas, passes the federal tests; the models counted farm-rent income the rules exclude.
10 of the 20 eligible households qualify only through categorical eligibility: 6 because income exceeds the federal limits (one of those also exceeds the asset limit), 4 because savings alone exceed the federal asset limit. On the 4 asset cases the models compute benefits near the reference: Sol within 1% on three and 10% on one, Fable 5.1 within 1% on all four.
Across the 100 households, Sol's SNAP explanations mention categorical eligibility in 1 and assets in 36; Fable 5.1's mention broad-based categorical eligibility in 28; Kimi K3's mention categorical eligibility in 17.
Pathways were recomputed with policyengine-us 1.723.0 from the frozen scenarios and agree with the frozen reference SNAP values for all 100 households; the reference itself was generated with policyengine-us 1.755.4.
1 Unrounded frozen reference: $287.68.