Grok 4.6
United States benchmark
Exact match by programall 18 output groups, best first
Bar length is the unweighted exact-match rate on that program's outputs; the right column is the program's share of the headline weight, which follows household dollars, so the bars do not average to the headline.
- Local income tax100.0%0.3%
- Person-level Early Head Start eligibility100.0%3.1%
- Person-level Head Start eligibility100.0%1.2%
- Person-level Medicare eligibility100.0%11%
- Person-level WIC eligibility100.0%0.3%
- Self-employment tax100.0%2.1%
- Free school meals eligibility99.0%0.7%
- TANF99.0%0.3%
- Reduced-price school meals eligibility98.0%0.1%
- SSI97.9%2.0%
- Person-level Medicaid eligibility96.0%30%
- Person-level CHIP eligibility94.4%0.2%
- Federal refundable credits90.0%3.7%
- Payroll tax88.0%16%
- State refundable credits83.0%0.6%
- SNAP79.4%4.1%
- State tax before refundable credits58.0%6.0%
- Federal tax before refundable credits50.0%19%
Table view (exact, within 1%, outputs), hardest first
| Program | Exact | Within 1% | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal tax before refundable credits | 50.0% | 51.0% | 100 |
| State tax before refundable credits | 58.0% | 65.0% | 100 |
| SNAP | 79.4% | 80.4% | 97 |
| State refundable credits | 83.0% | 83.0% | 100 |
| Payroll tax | 88.0% | 93.0% | 100 |
| Federal refundable credits | 90.0% | 91.0% | 100 |
| Person-level CHIP eligibility | 94.4% | 94.4% | 177 |
| Person-level Medicaid eligibility | 96.0% | 96.0% | 177 |
| SSI | 97.9% | 99.0% | 97 |
| Reduced-price school meals eligibility | 98.0% | 98.0% | 100 |
| Free school meals eligibility | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| TANF | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Local income tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Early Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Medicare eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 172 |
| Person-level WIC eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 177 |
| Self-employment tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
Hardest casesworst misses on positive references
- Federal tax before refundable credits698% offReference $1,346 · predicted $10,742Inspect household #039
- Federal tax before refundable credits511% offReference $500 · predicted $3,055Inspect household #046
- State tax before refundable credits287% offReference $514 · predicted $1,990Inspect household #039
- Federal tax before refundable credits206% offReference $5,200 · predicted $15,933Inspect household #123
- State tax before refundable credits102% offReference $756 · predicted $1,526Inspect household #007
- Federal tax before refundable credits100% offReference $643 · predicted $0Inspect household #023
Scores are from the frozen manuscript snapshot under the AI-alone condition: structured responses over the same household facts (whole-scenario or in output subsets, per the serving-configuration table), no tools, graded against PolicyEngine reference outputs. See the leaderboard and paper for methodology. The frozen US annotations cover 8,783 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 8,780 of 8,780 exact-match misses and 3 exact hits. Another 1,605 rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected and have no audit annotation.