Gemini 4 Argon
United States benchmark
Exact match by programall 18 output groups, best first
Bar length is the unweighted exact-match rate on that program's outputs; the right column is the program's share of the headline weight, which follows household dollars, so the bars do not average to the headline.
- Local income tax100.0%0.3%
- Person-level CHIP eligibility100.0%0.2%
- Person-level Early Head Start eligibility100.0%3.1%
- Person-level Head Start eligibility100.0%1.2%
- Person-level WIC eligibility100.0%0.3%
- Reduced-price school meals eligibility99.0%0.1%
- Self-employment tax99.0%2.1%
- TANF99.0%0.3%
- Person-level Medicare eligibility98.8%11%
- Free school meals eligibility98.0%0.7%
- SSI97.9%2.0%
- Person-level Medicaid eligibility96.5%30%
- Payroll tax90.6%16%
- Federal refundable credits90.0%3.7%
- SNAP84.9%4.1%
- State refundable credits83.8%0.6%
- State tax before refundable credits69.9%6.0%
- Federal tax before refundable credits69.0%19%
Table view (exact, within 1%, outputs), hardest first
| Program | Exact | Within 1% | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal tax before refundable credits | 69.0% | 72.6% | 84 |
| State tax before refundable credits | 69.9% | 74.2% | 93 |
| State refundable credits | 83.8% | 83.8% | 99 |
| SNAP | 84.9% | 87.1% | 93 |
| Federal refundable credits | 90.0% | 92.0% | 100 |
| Payroll tax | 90.6% | 92.7% | 96 |
| Person-level Medicaid eligibility | 96.5% | 96.5% | 173 |
| SSI | 97.9% | 99.0% | 97 |
| Free school meals eligibility | 98.0% | 98.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Medicare eligibility | 98.8% | 98.8% | 172 |
| Reduced-price school meals eligibility | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Self-employment tax | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| TANF | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Local income tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 98 |
| Person-level CHIP eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 177 |
| Person-level Early Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level WIC eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 177 |
Hardest casesworst misses on positive references
- SNAP295% offReference $288 · predicted $1,136Inspect household #030
- Federal refundable credits250% offReference $822 · predicted $2,878Inspect household #100
- SNAP100% offReference $240 · predicted $0Inspect household #013
- State refundable credits100% offReference $25 · predicted $0Inspect household #013
- State tax before refundable credits100% offReference $13 · predicted $0Inspect household #023
- SNAP100% offReference $288 · predicted $0Inspect household #027
Scores are from the frozen manuscript snapshot under the AI-alone condition: structured responses over the same household facts (whole-scenario or in output subsets, per the serving-configuration table), no tools, graded against PolicyEngine reference outputs. See the leaderboard and paper for methodology. The frozen US annotations cover 8,765 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 8,761 of 8,761 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. Another 2,329 rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected and have no audit annotation.