Gemini 3.8 Flash
United States benchmark
Exact match by programall 18 output groups, best first
Bar length is the unweighted exact-match rate on that program's outputs; the right column is the program's share of the headline weight, which follows household dollars, so the bars do not average to the headline.
- Local income tax100.0%0.3%
- Person-level Early Head Start eligibility100.0%3.1%
- Person-level Head Start eligibility100.0%1.2%
- Person-level Medicare eligibility100.0%11%
- Person-level WIC eligibility100.0%0.3%
- Self-employment tax100.0%2.1%
- TANF99.0%0.3%
- Free school meals eligibility98.0%0.7%
- Reduced-price school meals eligibility98.0%0.1%
- SSI97.9%2.0%
- Person-level CHIP eligibility97.7%0.2%
- Person-level Medicaid eligibility95.5%30%
- Federal refundable credits89.0%3.7%
- State refundable credits83.0%0.6%
- SNAP81.4%4.1%
- Payroll tax81.0%16%
- State tax before refundable credits62.0%6.0%
- Federal tax before refundable credits50.0%19%
Table view (exact, within 1%, outputs), hardest first
| Program | Exact | Within 1% | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal tax before refundable credits | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 |
| State tax before refundable credits | 62.0% | 65.0% | 100 |
| Payroll tax | 81.0% | 84.0% | 100 |
| SNAP | 81.4% | 82.5% | 97 |
| State refundable credits | 83.0% | 82.0% | 100 |
| Federal refundable credits | 89.0% | 91.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Medicaid eligibility | 95.5% | 95.5% | 177 |
| Person-level CHIP eligibility | 97.7% | 97.7% | 177 |
| SSI | 97.9% | 97.9% | 97 |
| Free school meals eligibility | 98.0% | 98.0% | 100 |
| Reduced-price school meals eligibility | 98.0% | 98.0% | 100 |
| TANF | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Local income tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Early Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Medicare eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 172 |
| Person-level WIC eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 177 |
| Self-employment tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
Hardest casesworst misses on positive references
- Federal tax before refundable credits493% offReference $500 · predicted $2,963Inspect household #046
- Federal tax before refundable credits463% offReference $1,346 · predicted $7,578Inspect household #039
- State tax before refundable credits402% offReference $285 · predicted $1,428Inspect household #042
- State tax before refundable credits293% offReference $514 · predicted $2,024Inspect household #039
- Federal tax before refundable credits152% offReference $5,200 · predicted $13,128Inspect household #123
- State tax before refundable credits150% offReference $7 · predicted $17Inspect household #023
Scores are from the frozen manuscript snapshot under the AI-alone condition: structured responses over the same household facts (whole-scenario or in output subsets, per the serving-configuration table), no tools, graded against PolicyEngine reference outputs. See the leaderboard and paper for methodology. The frozen US annotations cover 8,783 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 8,780 of 8,780 exact-match misses and 3 exact hits. Another 1,605 rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected and have no audit annotation.