Gemini 3.8 Flash
United States benchmark
Exact match by programall 18 output groups, best first
Bar length is the unweighted exact-match rate on that program's outputs; the right column is the program's share of the headline weight, which follows household dollars, so the bars do not average to the headline.
- Local income tax100.0%0.3%
- Person-level Early Head Start eligibility100.0%3.1%
- Person-level Head Start eligibility100.0%1.2%
- Person-level Medicare eligibility100.0%11%
- Person-level WIC eligibility100.0%0.3%
- Self-employment tax100.0%2.1%
- Reduced-price school meals eligibility99.0%0.1%
- TANF99.0%0.3%
- Free school meals eligibility98.0%0.7%
- SSI97.9%2.0%
- Person-level CHIP eligibility97.7%0.2%
- Person-level Medicaid eligibility97.1%30%
- Federal refundable credits89.0%3.7%
- State refundable credits85.9%0.6%
- SNAP84.9%4.1%
- Payroll tax84.4%16%
- State tax before refundable credits64.5%6.0%
- Federal tax before refundable credits56.0%19%
Table view (exact, within 1%, outputs), hardest first
| Program | Exact | Within 1% | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal tax before refundable credits | 56.0% | 57.1% | 84 |
| State tax before refundable credits | 64.5% | 67.7% | 93 |
| Payroll tax | 84.4% | 87.5% | 96 |
| SNAP | 84.9% | 84.9% | 93 |
| State refundable credits | 85.9% | 84.8% | 99 |
| Federal refundable credits | 89.0% | 91.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Medicaid eligibility | 97.1% | 97.1% | 173 |
| Person-level CHIP eligibility | 97.7% | 97.7% | 177 |
| SSI | 97.9% | 97.9% | 97 |
| Free school meals eligibility | 98.0% | 98.0% | 100 |
| Reduced-price school meals eligibility | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| TANF | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Local income tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 98 |
| Person-level Early Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Medicare eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 172 |
| Person-level WIC eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 177 |
| Self-employment tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
Hardest casesworst misses on positive references
- Federal tax before refundable credits493% offReference $500 · predicted $2,963Inspect household #046
- Federal refundable credits241% offReference $822 · predicted $2,803Inspect household #100
- SNAP100% offReference $240 · predicted $0Inspect household #013
- Federal refundable credits100% offReference $2,013 · predicted $0Inspect household #026
- SNAP100% offReference $288 · predicted $0Inspect household #027
- State refundable credits100% offReference $62 · predicted $0Inspect household #028
Scores are from the frozen manuscript snapshot under the AI-alone condition: structured responses over the same household facts (whole-scenario or in output subsets, per the serving-configuration table), no tools, graded against PolicyEngine reference outputs. See the leaderboard and paper for methodology. The frozen US annotations cover 8,765 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 8,761 of 8,761 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. Another 2,329 rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected and have no audit annotation.