Gemini 3.7 Flash
United States benchmark
Exact match by programall 18 output groups, best first
Bar length is the unweighted exact-match rate on that program's outputs; the right column is the program's share of the headline weight, which follows household dollars, so the bars do not average to the headline.
- Local income tax100.0%0.3%
- Person-level Early Head Start eligibility100.0%3.1%
- Person-level Head Start eligibility100.0%1.2%
- Person-level Medicare eligibility100.0%11%
- Self-employment tax100.0%2.1%
- Person-level WIC eligibility99.4%0.3%
- Free school meals eligibility99.0%0.7%
- Reduced-price school meals eligibility99.0%0.1%
- TANF99.0%0.3%
- SSI97.9%2.0%
- Person-level CHIP eligibility97.2%0.2%
- Person-level Medicaid eligibility96.5%30%
- Federal refundable credits85.7%3.7%
- SNAP83.9%4.1%
- State refundable credits83.7%0.6%
- Payroll tax73.7%16%
- State tax before refundable credits69.4%6.0%
- Federal tax before refundable credits57.0%19%
Table view (exact, within 1%, outputs), hardest first
| Program | Exact | Within 1% | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal tax before refundable credits | 57.0% | 58.2% | 79 |
| State tax before refundable credits | 69.4% | 72.9% | 85 |
| Payroll tax | 73.7% | 73.7% | 95 |
| State refundable credits | 83.7% | 82.7% | 98 |
| SNAP | 83.9% | 83.9% | 93 |
| Federal refundable credits | 85.7% | 87.8% | 98 |
| Person-level Medicaid eligibility | 96.5% | 96.5% | 173 |
| Person-level CHIP eligibility | 97.2% | 97.2% | 177 |
| SSI | 97.9% | 99.0% | 97 |
| Free school meals eligibility | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Reduced-price school meals eligibility | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| TANF | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Person-level WIC eligibility | 99.4% | 99.4% | 177 |
| Local income tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Early Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Medicare eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 172 |
| Self-employment tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
Hardest casesworst misses on positive references
- Federal tax before refundable credits482% offReference $1,910 · predicted $11,116Inspect household #068
- Federal tax before refundable credits445% offReference $500 · predicted $2,722Inspect household #046
- State tax before refundable credits281% offReference $1,255 · predicted $4,786Inspect household #068
- Federal tax before refundable credits228% offReference $5,200 · predicted $17,046Inspect household #123
- SNAP137% offReference $2,376 · predicted $5,640Inspect household #079
- State tax before refundable credits133% offReference $1,026 · predicted $2,389Inspect household #122
Scores are from the frozen manuscript snapshot under the AI-alone condition: structured responses over the same household facts (whole-scenario or in output subsets, per the serving-configuration table), no tools, graded against PolicyEngine reference outputs. See the leaderboard and paper for methodology. The frozen US annotations cover 7,527 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 7,523 of 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. Another 2,072 rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected and have no audit annotation.