Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview
United States benchmark
Exact match by programall 18 output groups, best first
Bar length is the unweighted exact-match rate on that program's outputs; the right column is the program's share of the headline weight, which follows household dollars, so the bars do not average to the headline.
- Local income tax100.0%0.3%
- Person-level Early Head Start eligibility100.0%3.1%
- Reduced-price school meals eligibility100.0%0.1%
- Self-employment tax100.0%2.1%
- Person-level WIC eligibility99.4%0.3%
- Person-level Medicare eligibility99.4%11%
- Free school meals eligibility99.0%0.7%
- TANF99.0%0.3%
- Person-level CHIP eligibility98.3%0.2%
- Person-level Medicaid eligibility97.1%30%
- SSI96.9%2.0%
- Person-level Head Start eligibility94.7%1.2%
- Federal refundable credits86.7%3.7%
- SNAP83.9%4.1%
- State refundable credits82.7%0.6%
- Payroll tax68.4%16%
- State tax before refundable credits65.9%6.0%
- Federal tax before refundable credits54.4%19%
Table view (exact, within 1%, outputs), hardest first
| Program | Exact | Within 1% | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal tax before refundable credits | 54.4% | 55.7% | 79 |
| State tax before refundable credits | 65.9% | 67.1% | 85 |
| Payroll tax | 68.4% | 69.5% | 95 |
| State refundable credits | 82.7% | 82.7% | 98 |
| SNAP | 83.9% | 83.9% | 93 |
| Federal refundable credits | 86.7% | 89.8% | 98 |
| Person-level Head Start eligibility | 94.7% | 94.7% | 38 |
| SSI | 96.9% | 96.9% | 97 |
| Person-level Medicaid eligibility | 97.1% | 97.1% | 173 |
| Person-level CHIP eligibility | 98.3% | 98.3% | 177 |
| Free school meals eligibility | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| TANF | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Medicare eligibility | 99.4% | 99.4% | 172 |
| Person-level WIC eligibility | 99.4% | 99.4% | 177 |
| Local income tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Early Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Reduced-price school meals eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
| Self-employment tax | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
Hardest casesworst misses on positive references
- Federal tax before refundable credits273% offReference $500 · predicted $1,864Inspect household #046
- State tax before refundable credits194% offReference $1,026 · predicted $3,013Inspect household #122
- Federal tax before refundable credits133% offReference $5,200 · predicted $12,136Inspect household #123
- SNAP100% offReference $240 · predicted $0Inspect household #013
- State refundable credits100% offReference $25 · predicted $0Inspect household #013
- Federal tax before refundable credits100% offReference $643 · predicted $0Inspect household #023
Scores are from the frozen manuscript snapshot under the AI-alone condition: structured responses over the same household facts (whole-scenario or in output subsets, per the serving-configuration table), no tools, graded against PolicyEngine reference outputs. See the leaderboard and paper for methodology. The frozen US annotations cover 7,527 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 7,523 of 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. Another 2,072 rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected and have no audit annotation.