Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview
United States benchmark
Exact match by programall 18 output groups, best first
Bar length is the unweighted exact-match rate on that program's outputs; the right column is the program's share of the headline weight, which follows household dollars, so the bars do not average to the headline.
- Person-level CHIP eligibility100.0%0.2%
- Reduced-price school meals eligibility100.0%0.1%
- Free school meals eligibility99.0%0.7%
- Local income tax99.0%0.3%
- TANF99.0%0.3%
- Person-level WIC eligibility98.9%0.3%
- SSI97.9%2.0%
- Person-level Early Head Start eligibility97.4%3.1%
- Person-level Head Start eligibility97.4%1.2%
- Person-level Medicare eligibility96.5%11%
- Self-employment tax96.0%2.1%
- Person-level Medicaid eligibility91.3%30%
- SNAP84.9%4.1%
- Federal refundable credits84.7%3.7%
- State refundable credits81.6%0.6%
- Payroll tax80.0%16%
- State tax before refundable credits54.1%6.0%
- Federal tax before refundable credits48.1%19%
Table view (exact, within 1%, outputs), hardest first
| Program | Exact | Within 1% | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal tax before refundable credits | 48.1% | 49.4% | 79 |
| State tax before refundable credits | 54.1% | 56.5% | 85 |
| Payroll tax | 80.0% | 88.4% | 95 |
| State refundable credits | 81.6% | 81.6% | 98 |
| Federal refundable credits | 84.7% | 84.7% | 98 |
| SNAP | 84.9% | 84.9% | 93 |
| Person-level Medicaid eligibility | 91.3% | 91.3% | 173 |
| Self-employment tax | 96.0% | 98.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Medicare eligibility | 96.5% | 96.5% | 172 |
| Person-level Early Head Start eligibility | 97.4% | 97.4% | 38 |
| Person-level Head Start eligibility | 97.4% | 97.4% | 38 |
| SSI | 97.9% | 97.9% | 97 |
| Person-level WIC eligibility | 98.9% | 98.9% | 177 |
| Free school meals eligibility | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Local income tax | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| TANF | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Person-level CHIP eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 177 |
| Reduced-price school meals eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
Hardest casesworst misses on positive references
- Federal tax before refundable credits1605% offReference $500 · predicted $8,518Inspect household #046
- SNAP804% offReference $288 · predicted $2,604Inspect household #030
- Federal tax before refundable credits232% offReference $5,200 · predicted $17,290Inspect household #123
- State tax before refundable credits136% offReference $1,026 · predicted $2,420Inspect household #122
- Federal tax before refundable credits120% offReference $6,311 · predicted $13,915Inspect household #014
- State refundable credits100% offReference $155 · predicted $0Inspect household #007
Scores are from the frozen manuscript snapshot under the AI-alone condition: structured responses over the same household facts (whole-scenario or in output subsets, per the serving-configuration table), no tools, graded against PolicyEngine reference outputs. See the leaderboard and paper for methodology. The frozen US annotations cover 7,527 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 7,523 of 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. Another 2,072 rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected and have no audit annotation.