Gemini 3 Flash Preview
United States benchmark
Exact match by programall 18 output groups, best first
Bar length is the unweighted exact-match rate on that program's outputs; the right column is the program's share of the headline weight, which follows household dollars, so the bars do not average to the headline.
- Free school meals eligibility100.0%0.7%
- Person-level Early Head Start eligibility100.0%3.1%
- Person-level Head Start eligibility100.0%1.2%
- Person-level CHIP eligibility99.4%0.2%
- Person-level WIC eligibility99.4%0.3%
- Person-level Medicare eligibility99.4%11%
- Reduced-price school meals eligibility99.0%0.1%
- Self-employment tax99.0%2.1%
- TANF99.0%0.3%
- Local income tax98.0%0.3%
- SSI97.9%2.0%
- Person-level Medicaid eligibility96.0%30%
- Federal refundable credits85.7%3.7%
- State refundable credits82.7%0.6%
- SNAP81.7%4.1%
- Payroll tax68.4%16%
- State tax before refundable credits63.5%6.0%
- Federal tax before refundable credits55.7%19%
Table view (exact, within 1%, outputs), hardest first
| Program | Exact | Within 1% | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal tax before refundable credits | 55.7% | 57.0% | 79 |
| State tax before refundable credits | 63.5% | 64.7% | 85 |
| Payroll tax | 68.4% | 69.5% | 95 |
| SNAP | 81.7% | 81.7% | 93 |
| State refundable credits | 82.7% | 82.7% | 98 |
| Federal refundable credits | 85.7% | 86.7% | 98 |
| Person-level Medicaid eligibility | 96.0% | 96.0% | 173 |
| SSI | 97.9% | 97.9% | 97 |
| Local income tax | 98.0% | 98.0% | 100 |
| Reduced-price school meals eligibility | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Self-employment tax | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| TANF | 99.0% | 99.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Medicare eligibility | 99.4% | 99.4% | 172 |
| Person-level CHIP eligibility | 99.4% | 99.4% | 177 |
| Person-level WIC eligibility | 99.4% | 99.4% | 177 |
| Free school meals eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100 |
| Person-level Early Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
| Person-level Head Start eligibility | 100.0% | 100.0% | 38 |
Hardest casesworst misses on positive references
- Federal tax before refundable credits722% offReference $500 · predicted $4,108Inspect household #046
- State tax before refundable credits206% offReference $1,026 · predicted $3,135Inspect household #122
- SNAP100% offReference $240 · predicted $0Inspect household #013
- State refundable credits100% offReference $25 · predicted $0Inspect household #013
- Federal tax before refundable credits100% offReference $643 · predicted $0Inspect household #023
- SNAP100% offReference $288 · predicted $0Inspect household #027
Scores are from the frozen manuscript snapshot under the AI-alone condition: structured responses over the same household facts (whole-scenario or in output subsets, per the serving-configuration table), no tools, graded against PolicyEngine reference outputs. See the leaderboard and paper for methodology. The frozen US annotations cover 7,527 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 7,523 of 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. Another 2,072 rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected and have no audit annotation.